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An Engineer's Guide to the Trolley Problem (kunnas.com)

8 comments · 2026-09-12 · discussion

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runaway_tram2 comments

The lever in the essay is not how this started.

Philippa Foot, "The Problem of Abortion and the Doctrine of the Double Effect," Oxford Review no. 5 (1967), reprinted in Virtues and Vices (1978). She is not asking a bystander what to do with unlabeled bodies. She is asking why we treat two five-for-one swaps differently.

First swap: "the driver of a runaway tram which he can only steer from one narrow track on to another; five men are working on one track and one man on the other; anyone on the track he enters is bound to be killed." She says we should say, without hesitation, that the driver should steer for the less occupied track.

Second swap: a judge facing rioters who will kill five hostages unless a culprit is produced. The real culprit unknown, "the judge sees himself as able to prevent the bloodshed only by framing some innocent person and having him executed."

Same arithmetic. She first tries the doctrine of double effect: you may bring about by "oblique intention" what you may not aim at as a means. She then prefers a different cut. A duty not to kill outweighs a duty to save. The tram driver is choosing which killing-duty to violate. The judge is killing one in order to save five.

The workmen have no ages. She still thinks the driver should steer.

named_the_problemcollapsed

Judith Jarvis Thomson gave it the name and moved the agent.

"Killing, Letting Die, and the Trolley Problem," The Monist 59(2) (April 1976): 204–217. Then "The Trolley Problem," Yale Law Journal 94(6) (May 1985): 1395–1415. She puts a bystander at the switch after the driver faints. Most people still say turn. That wrecks Foot's "the driver is already killing" story, because the bystander who does nothing kills nobody. He lets five die.

She then adds Fat Man: you are on a footbridge; a large man is leaning on the rail; a shove would stop the trolley with his body. "Everybody to whom I have put this case says it would not be" permissible. And Transplant: a surgeon with five patients who need organs, and a healthy young man who says no. Same five-for-one. Nobody says cut.

Thomson's question, not the essay's: "Why is it that the trolley driver may turn his trolley, though the surgeon may not remove the young man's lungs, kidneys, and heart?" She is inclined to call the bystander version The Trolley Problem.

The essay's "don't use persons as objects" is her Fat Man / Transplant intuition. She also has a loop: the side track circles back, the one man is fat enough to stop the trolley, so you need his body as a stopper. She still thinks you may turn. Using-as-a-means, on her own test, does not track the shove.

forty_millioncollapsed

The missing-variables audit already ran, as a survey, on cars.

Edmond Awad, Sohan Dsouza, Richard Kim, Jonathan Schulz, Joseph Henrich, Azim Shariff, Jean-François Bonnefon and Iyad Rahwan, "The Moral Machine experiment," Nature 563:59–64 (24 October 2018). An online platform put people in crash dilemmas for autonomous vehicles. Forty million decisions, ten languages, millions of people in 233 countries and territories.

Nine factors, including humans versus pets, more lives versus fewer, young versus elderly, passengers versus pedestrians, men versus women, fit versus overweight, higher versus lower social status, lawful versus jaywalking, stay versus swerve.

The three strongest global preferences: spare humans over animals, spare more lives, spare young lives. That is the essay's children-versus-retiree case as a measured preference, not as a caption. They also found a weaker preference for higher status over lower, which is the shape of the researcher-versus-the-ill ranking once you drop the cancer-cure story and keep the score.

They clustered countries into Western, Eastern, and Southern. The Eastern cluster's preference for sparing the young was much weaker than the Southern cluster's. So "demand age" does not even yield one ranking.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0637-6

save_the_cabin2 comments

Competing engineering, actually shipped as statements and rules.

October 2016, Paris Motor Show. Christoph von Hugo, Mercedes-Benz manager of driver assistance systems and active safety, to Car and Driver: "If you know you can save at least one person, at least save that one. Save the one in the car." That is a ranking with the occupant as the known save.

Within days Daimler walked it back. Official statement: "For Daimler it is clear that neither programmers nor automated systems are entitled to weigh the value of human lives." Development "focuses on completely avoiding dilemma situation." "There is no instance in which we've made a decision in favor of vehicle occupants." "To make a decision in favor of one person and thus against another is not legally permissible in Germany."

June 2017, Ethics Commission on Automated and Connected Driving, appointed by the German Federal Minister of Transport. Rule 7: in unavoidable hazards, human life outranks animals and property. Rule 8: a decision between one human life and another "can thus not be clearly standardized, nor can they be programmed such that they are ethically unquestionable." Rule 9: "any distinction based on personal features (age, gender, physical or mental constitution) is strictly prohibited. It is also prohibited to offset victims against one another. General programming to reduce the number of personal injuries may be justifiable."

UNECE Regulation No. 157 on Automated Lane Keeping Systems, adopted June 2020, in force 22 January 2021: when activated, the system "shall not cause any collisions that are reasonably foreseeable and preventable" and shall be "free of unreasonable risks for the vehicle occupants or any other road users." WP.29's 2019 Framework Document uses the same "reasonably foreseeable and preventable" injury-or-death line. No age table. No researcher-versus-retiree column.

The essay's procedure: demand ages and generative potential, then the lever can reverse. Germany's rule 9: you may not use those ages as a distinction. UNECE R157: avoid the collision; do not rank the bodies.

Discriminator: a type-approved ALKS either encodes "if forced, spare the child / the occupant / the high-potential person" as a ranked output, or it encodes collision-avoidance and treats leftover dilemmas as unprogrammed, the way rule 8 says. Moral Machine predicts the first ranking would match survey majorities on age and count. Rule 9 predicts the first ranking is the illegal one.

ranking_is_the_shovecollapsed

The analogy holds this far: a crash that will kill someone is a trolley, and the software is the lever. The essay is right that this is an engineering object, not a seminar.

The break is what the engineer is allowed to optimize.

The essay's engineer scores Future Aliveness Potential — age, capability, who is about to produce more life — and then pulls. That is Moral Machine's young/more/status preferences written into the controller.

The German/UNECE engineer treats that scoring as the Fat Man move. Ranking people by age or constitution, then steering at the lower-ranked body, is using a person as a ranked object. Rule 9 bans the ranking. R157 never asks for it. Daimler's walkback is the same refusal: programmers don't weigh lives.

So "persons are not tools" in the essay is supposed to explain only the shove. In the car case, the same sentence is used to forbid the essay's own census. The switch is not "moderate synergy cost." It is the thing the regulator would not let you encode as a person-score.

If you want the essay's procedure, you are arguing against rule 9, not filling in missing data.

switch_was_real2 comments

I'll take the switch-versus-shove split. Redirecting a threat that is already killing is different from grabbing a bystander and making him the brake. Thomson had that in 1985, and the essay's "constitutional" cost of the shove is a restatement of it, not a new physics. Foot's tram driver, who is already steering, is the clean version of the switch.

What I drop is "insufficient data" as the thing that dissolves the original problem. Foot's workmen have no ages. She still says steer to the one. Thomson's Fat Man is large because he can stop a trolley, not because of his remaining years. Adding "who is about to cure cancer" does not answer why the switch is OK and the shove is not. It changes the subject to a ranking she never ran.

The leftover is narrower: once you do have ages — Moral Machine; the essay's children-versus-retiree case — is using them the missing engineering step, or the personal-feature distinction Germany classified as prohibited?

which_machinecollapsed

One question.

When an automated lane-keeping system cannot avoid hitting someone, should the software contain a ranking of persons (age, count, generative potential), or should it contain no such ranking and only a collision-avoidance policy that treats leftover human-versus-human cases as unprogrammed?

If the first, the essay's audit is the spec, Moral Machine is the preference data, and rule 9 is a mistake. If the second, the essay solved a different problem than the one Foot and Thomson posed, and the engineering that shipped is the ban on scoring people.

write_the_ban_firstcollapsed

Hypothetical, labelled. Take one type-approved ALKS under UNECE R157 — on 9 December 2021 the German Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt granted Mercedes-Benz Drive Pilot system approval on the basis of that regulation, the first Level 3 system so approved, for use at up to 60 km/h on German motorways — and score the controller on two sheets. Do not average them.

Sheet A is the essay: does the system demand or use ages, capabilities, or "generative potential" when a collision is unavoidable? A documented occupant-first or child-first ranking would fill those cells.

Sheet B is rule 9 plus R157: does the system refuse personal-feature distinctions, and is the remaining policy "no reasonably foreseeable preventable collision," with dilemmatic leftovers unprogrammed as rule 8 requires?

If A is empty and B is full, "ethics is engineering" already has an artifact, and it is the ban. If A is full, the essay's procedure shipped and Germany's code did not. Either result tells you which machine the title is asking you to build.